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Paper

Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight

 
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Publication: Journal of the American Planning Association
Pages: 1-18
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

As warehousing and distribution centers (W&D) rapidly expand, nearby communities, especially those that have been historically marginalized, face growing health risks from increased freight traffic. This research examines how local and state zoning decisions across the U.S. influence the placement and regulation of W&D facilities, and whether those actions consider environmental justice (EJ) principles.

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Warehousing and distribution center (W&D) expansion has raised concerns about the disproportionate exposure of nearby communities to freight traffic and its resulting health consequences. While local governments wield several tools to manage logistics-related development, few may be as consequential to public health disparities as zoning. In this study we synthesized the state of recent U.S. zoning actions related to W&D, examining their role as tools—or barriers—for advancing public health in communities historically burdened by freight traffic. Specifically, we investigated 92zoning actions at 67 locations (51 municipalities, 9 counties, and 7 states) and assessed the level at which environmental justice (EJ) principles informed these actions. The most common zoning actions were discretionary decisions on site permits (n ¼ 32). While we offer examples of councils considering EJ issues raised by communities, discretionary processes have drawbacks. Other actions include long-term plans (n ¼ 17), land use definitions (n ¼ 13), development standards (n ¼ 12), and conditional use permitting (n ¼ 14). We also examined four state-level policies. Many regulations restrict by-right W&D development with little indication that these changes are intended to benefit historically burdened communities.

Takeaway for practice: Local jurisdictions lack a unified regulatory approach to W&D. However, long-term plans and state environmental policies guide jurisdictions with the most EJ-explicit actions. Equitable and healthy urban freight requires clear strategic land use priorities and environmental safeguards for vulnerable communities but could also include flexibility for W&D development outside conventional industrial areas. We discuss how these findings fit into contemporary debates about zoning and urban freight planning

Authors: Travis FriedDr. Sarah Dennis-BauerDr. Anne GoodchildOliver Olmedo, Carla Tejada, Otgondulam Bolbaatar, Julian D. Marshall, Lizándro García
Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Tejada, C., Dennis-Bauer, S., Bolbaatar, O., Goodchild, A., Marshall, J. D., … García, L. (2025). Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2025.2515134
Paper

Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft

 
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Publication: Transport Policy
Volume: 162
Pages: 406-423
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

This study explores what influences people’s willingness to use Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs), incorporating factors like social influence, environmental concern, enjoyment, and perceived security risks to better understand public perception.

Abstract

This paper assesses the public acceptance of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs) by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating subjective norms, environmental concerns, and hedonic motivations alongside the original TAM constructs. The perceived security risk of theft is also defined and included in the model to explore its moderating role. Data was collected from an online survey of 1567 participants in different cities in Iran. The survey incorporated two open-ended questions as part of a qualitative approach to assessing control beliefs, exploring both the facilitators and barriers influencing people’s intentions. Based on structural equation modeling, findings highlight the strong impact of subjective norms and perceived usefulness on intention, along with the significant effect of attitudes and environmental concern. The moderating effect of the perceived security risk of theft is significant in perceived ease of use and hedonic motivations’ interactions with attitudes. Exploring the responses from open-ended questions showed that the majority of respondents perceived that using ADVs could help the environment, while the risk of stealing ADVs was identified as the main barrier to adopting them in urban settings.

Authors: Arsalan Esmaili, Sina Rejali (Queensland University of Technology), Kayvan Aghabayk (University of Tehran), Amin Mohammadi (University of Tabriz), Chris De Gruyter (RMIT University)
Recommended Citation:
Esmaili, Arsalan & Rejali, Sina & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Mohammadi, Amin & De Gruyter, Chris, 2025. "Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 406-423.

Managing the Traffic-Related Air Pollution (TRAP) Effects of Urban Warehousing Near Historically Marginalized Communities: A Scenario Analysis of Technology and Land Use Based Strategies

Ecommerce’s far-reaching impacts have prompted cities and companies to introduce strategies that advance urban freight transport’s environmental accountability. Many of these strategies have implications for equity. Warehousing and distribution centers (W&Ds) have concentrated in socially marginalized communities, in part, due to historical, racialized urban development practices. W&Ds generate high volumes of freight trips that are a prominent emitter of health-adverse, criteria air pollutants that burden nearby communities and workers. With the rapid proliferation of these facilities due to ecommerce-related demands, there is a need to evaluate and manage the traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) effect of these strategies on local communities. Most urban freight management strategies center on technological approaches (e.g., electrification), with limited implications for land use based strategies (e.g., zoning) that influence the spatial organization of W&Ds. Therefore, the proposed project endeavors to evaluate the distributional impacts of possible local policy interventions within ecommerce-related transport and land use systems with a focus on populations identified by federal Justice40 guidelines and steering committee input.

The methodology employs a novel, model-based approach to estimate the distribution of ecommerce’s TRAP-related health effects across population subgroups. Methodological procedures include household-level demand modeling using publicly available household travel surveys and population synthesis, traffic simulation (TransModeler), EPA MOVES4, and InMAP modeling with assumptions and parameters informed by interviews with experts from delivery companies, city planning agencies, and W&D operators. The model projects scenarios of future adoption of low- and zero-emission commercial vehicles and alternative W&D locations/characteristics, using sensitivity analyses to capture the effects of uncertainty in model parameters. The project identifies Seattle and New York City as case studies, due the states’ recent adoption of California’s Advanced Clean Truck Program, New York’s proposed Indirect Source Rule that targets W&D-derived pollution in historically marginalized communities, and both cities’ innovative efforts to analyze and mitigate the impacts of ecommerce. The findings and employed methods have long-term applicability for local and regional policymakers’ strategic equity goals concerning comprehensive urban mobility and land use planning.

The project’s objectives seek to capture the breadth of disparate impacts resulting from decisions made by consumers, delivery companies, state and local policymakers.

The UFL spearheads the project, with strategic leadership by Dr. Anne Goodchild (PI) and statistical leadership by Dr. Giacomo Dalla Chiara. Dr. Julian Marshall (co-PI) advises pollutant exposure and health effect estimation methods and interpretations. Travis Fried, Ph.D. student and RA, directs the methodological workflow and written production of results. Dr. Lianne Sheppard (UW Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and Biostatistics) serves as scientific advisor on the steering committee, providing additional support for interpretation of results and review of written materials.

Paper

Evaluating Spatial Inequity in Last-Mile Delivery: A National Analysis

 
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Publication: International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management
Volume:  54 (5)
Pages: 501-522
Publication Date: 2024
Summary:

This study introduces a first-of-a-kind modeling framework to evaluate the equity impacts of last-mile ecommerce delivery in U.S. cities. Analyzing data across 41 metropolitan areas, the research finds that populations of color experience significantly higher exposure to delivery traffic—about 35% more than white populations—despite ordering fewer packages. The framework helps planners assess baseline equity performance and test urban freight strategies.

Purpose

Despite large bodies of research related to the impacts of e-commerce on last-mile logistics and sustainability, there has been limited effort to evaluate urban freight using an equity lens. Therefore, this study proposes a modeling framework that enables researchers and planners to estimate the baseline equity performance of a major e-commerce platform and evaluate equity impacts of possible urban freight management strategies. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of various operational decisions to mitigate bias in the analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The model adapts empirical methodologies from activity-based modeling, transport equity evaluation, and residential freight trip generation (RFTG) to estimate person- and household-level delivery demand and cargo van traffic exposure in 41 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

Findings

Evaluating 12 measurements across varying population segments and spatial units, the study finds robust evidence for racial and socio-economic inequities in last-mile delivery for low-income and, especially, populations of color (POC). By the most conservative measurement, POC are exposed to roughly 35% more cargo van traffic than white populations on average, despite ordering less than half as many packages. The study explores the model’s utility by evaluating a simple scenario that finds marginal equity gains for urban freight management strategies that prioritize line-haul efficiency improvements over those improving intra-neighborhood circulations.

Originality/value

Presents a first effort in building a modeling framework for more equitable decision-making in last-mile delivery operations and broader city planning.

Authors: Travis FriedDr. Anne Goodchild, Ivan Sanchez Diaz (Chalmers University), Michael Browne (Gothenburg University)
Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Goodchild, A.V., Sanchez-Diaz, I. and Browne, M. (2024), "Evaluating spatial inequity in last-mile delivery: a national analysis", International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management.

Gabor Wehrmueller

Gabor Wehrmueller
Gabor Wehrmueller(no longer at UFL/SCTL)
  • Research Assistant, Urban Freight Lab
  • MSc., Supply Chain Management
  • Digitalization of the supply chain
  • MSc of Supply Chain Management, University of Washington (in progress)
  • MSc in Applied Information and Data Science, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts
  • BA in Social Sciences, University of Zurich

Gabor Wehrmueller is a Research Assistant at the Urban Freight Lab and is pursuing a Master’s in Supply Chain Management at Foster School of Business. Before starting his Master’s, Gabor worked for over three years as a data scientist digitalizing the supply chain of a pharma company in Switzerland.

Gabor also holds an MSc in Applied Information and Data Science (Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts) and a BA in Social Sciences (University of Zurich).

Paper

Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle

 
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Publication: Research in Transportation Economics
Volume: 103
Publication Date: 2023
Summary:

Urban distribution centers (UDCs) are opening at unprecedented rates to meet rising home delivery demand. The trend has raised concerns over the equity and environmental justice implications of ecommerce’s negative externalities. However, little research exists connecting UDC location to the concentration of urban freight-derived air pollution among marginalized populations.

Using spatial data of Amazon UDCs in metropolitan Seattle, this study quantifies the socio-spatial distribution of home delivery-related commercial vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), corresponding air pollution, and explanatory factors. Results reveal that racial and income factors are relevant to criteria air pollutant exposure caused by home deliveries, due to tracts with majority people of color being closer in proximity to UDCs and highways. Tracts with majority people of color face the highest median concentration of delivery vehicle activity and emissions despite ordering less packages than white populations. While both cargo van and heavy-duty truck emissions disproportionately affect people of color, the socio-spatial distribution of truck emissions shows higher sensitivity to fluctuations in utilization.

Prioritizing environmental mitigation of freight activity further up the urban distribution chain in proximity to UDCs, therefore, would have an outsized impact in minimizing disparities in ecommerce’s negative externalities.

Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Verma, R., & Goodchild, A. (2024). Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle. Research in Transportation Economics, 103, 101382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101382
Article

How Many Amazon Packages Get Delivered Each Year?

Publication: The Conversation
Publication Date: 2022
Summary:

How many Amazon packages get delivered each year? – Aya K., age 9, Illinois

It’s incredibly convenient to buy something online, right from your computer or phone. Whether it’s a high-end telescope or a resupply of toothpaste, the goods appear right at your doorstep. This kind of shopping is called “e-commerce” and it’s becoming more popular each year. In the U.S., it has grown from a mere 7% of retail purchases in 2012 to 19.6% of retail and $791.7 billion in sales in 2020.

Amazon’s growing reach
For Amazon, the biggest player in e-commerce, this means delivering lots of packages.

In 2021 Amazon shipped an estimated 7.7 billion packages globally, based on its nearly $470 billion in sales.

In 2021 Amazon shipped an estimated 7.7 billion packages globally.

If each of these packages were a 1-foot square box and they were stacked on top of one another, the pile would be six times higher than the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Laid end to end, they would wrap around the Earth 62 times.

Back in the early 2010s, most things bought from Amazon.com were shipped using a third-party carrier like FedEx or UPS. In 2014, however, Amazon began delivering packages itself with a service called “Fulfilled by Amazon.” That’s when those signature blue delivery vans started appearing on local streets.

Since then, Amazon’s logistics arm has grown from relying entirely on other carriers to shipping 22% of all packages in the U.S. in 2021. This is greater than FedEx’s 19% market share and within striking distance of UPS’s 24%. Amazon’s multichannel fulfillment service allows other websites to use its warehousing and shipping services. So your order from Etsy or eBay could also be packed and shipped by Amazon.

The supply chain
To handle that many packages, shipping companies need an extensive network of manufacturers, vehicles and warehouses that can coordinate together. This is called the supply chain. If you’ve ever used a tracking number to follow a package, you’ve seen it in action.

People who make decisions about where to send vehicles and how to route packages are constantly trying to keep costs down while still getting packages to customers on time. The supply chain can do this very effectively, but it also has downsides.

More delivery vehicles on the road produce more greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, along with pollutants like nitrogen oxides and particulate matter that are hazardous to breathe. Traffic congestion is also a major concern in cities as delivery drivers try to find parking on busy streets.

Urban freight solutions
Are there ways to balance the increasing number of deliveries while making freight safe, sustainable and fast? At the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab, we work with companies like Amazon and UPS and others in the shipping, transportation and real estate sectors to answer questions like this. Here are some solutions for what we and our colleagues call the “last mile” – the last leg of a package’s long journey to your doorstep.

  • Electrification: Transitioning from gasoline and diesel vehicles to fleets of electric or other zero-emission vehicles reduces pollution from delivery trucks. Tax credits and local policies, such as creating so-called green loading zones and zero-emission zones for clean vehicles, create incentives for companies to make the switch.
  • Common carrier lockers: Buildings can install lockers at central locations, such as busy transit stops, so that drivers can drop off packages without going all the way to your doorstep. When you’re ready to pick up your items, you just stop by at a time that’s convenient for you. This reduces both delivery truck mileage and the risk of packages being stolen off of porches.
  • Cargo bicycles: Companies can take the delivery truck out of the equation and use electric cargo bicycles to drop off smaller packages. In addition to being zero-emission, cargo bicycles are relatively inexpensive and easy to park, and they provide a healthier alternative for delivery workers.

To learn more about supply chains and delivery logistics, check with your town or city’s transportation department to see if they are testing or already have goods delivery programs or policies, like those in New York and Seattle. And the next time you order something for delivery, consider your options for receiving it, such as walking or biking to a package locker or pickup point, or consolidating your items into a single delivery.

Package delivery can be both convenient and sustainable if companies keep evolving their supply chains, and everyone thinks about how they want delivery to work in their neighborhoods.

Recommended Citation:
Goodchild, A. How many Amazon packages get delivered each year? The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/how-many-amazon-packages-get-delivered-each-year-187587
Presentation

Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle U.S.

 
Publication: Laboratoire Ville Mobilite Transport (City Transportation Mobility Laboratory), Paris
Publication Date: 2022
Summary:

The central research question for this project explores the distributional impacts of ecommerce and its implications for equity and justice.

The research aims to investigate how commercial land use affects people and communities. In 2018, U.S. warehouses surpassed office buildings as the primary form of commercial and industrial land use, now accounting for 18 billion square feet of floor space. Warehouses have experienced significant growth in both number and square footage, becoming the predominant land use in the U.S. Warehouse expansion has strategically sprawled from port areas to suburbs in order to get closer to populations and transportation access.

The research findings reveal a correlation between warehouse locations and lower-income communities, resulting in increased exposure to air pollution and triple the traffic associated with ecommerce. Conversely, higher-income populations experience the least exposure, despite making more than half of their purchases online compared to their lower-income counterparts.

Factors such as race and proximity to highways and warehouse locations emerge as stronger predictors of the volume of freight activity through ecommerce than individuals’ income levels or the number of orders placed. Going forward, there is an opportunity for retailers and distributors to take into account the health implications of warehouse placement, and governments can provide best practices to facilitate municipal coordination, particularly where local authorities may be unaware of the impacts.

Authors: Travis Fried
Technical Report

Route Machine: UW Medicine Department of Medicine Courier Services

 
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Publication Date: 2019
Summary:

The goal of this report is to survey the current state of practice of UW Medicine Department of Laboratory Medicine Courier Services in order to evaluate potential software(s) that can be implemented to fill information gaps needed to effectively and efficiently make informed decisions. The report describes the high-level goals and decision scope of the route machine, observations of the current state, evaluation criteria and ‘route machine’ options.

The information in this report can be used to inform:

  • What data insights (indicators) might be helpful for strategizing courier routing decisions and communicating information to leadership
  • Potential improvement strategies and what they might look like in implementation
  • Suitability of various data collection, visualization, and analytical tools, and off-the-shelf packages

This information provides the UW Department of Laboratory Medicine Courier Services the information needed to select tools(s), and general data insights the ‘route machine’ for implementation.

The rest of this document is organized as follows:

  • Objectives and decision scope of the ‘route machine’
  • Observations of the current routes
  • A list of key-performance indicators
  • Potential strategies for improving routes
  • Recommendations
  • Screenshots of Dashboard Prototypes and WorkWaze
Recommended Citation:
Greene, Chelsea and Anne Goodchild (2019). Route Machine: UW Medicine Department of Medicine Courier Services.
Paper

Logistics Sprawl: Differential Warehousing Development Patterns in Los Angeles and Seattle

 
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Publication: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Volume: 2410
Pages: 105-112
Publication Date: 2014
Summary:

The warehousing industry experienced a period of rapid growth from 1998 to 2009. This paper compares how the geographic distribution of warehouses changed in both the Los Angeles and Seattle Metropolitan Areas over that time period. These two west coast cities were chosen due to their geographic spread and proximity to major ports as well as their difference in size. The phenomenon of logistics sprawl, or the movement of logistics facilities away from urban centers, which has been demonstrated in past research for the Atlanta and Paris regions, is examined for these two areas. The weighted geometric center of warehousing establishments was calculated for both areas for both years, along with the change in the average distance of warehouses to that center, an indicator of sprawl. We find that between 1998 and 2009, warehousing in Los Angeles sprawled considerably, with the average distance increasing from 25.91 to 31.96 miles, an increase of over 6 miles. However in Seattle, the region remained relatively stable, showing a slight decrease in average distance from the geographic center. Possible explanations for this difference are discussed.

Authors: Dr. Anne Goodchild, Laetitia Dablanc, Scott Ogilvie
Recommended Citation:
Dablanc, Laetitia, Scott Ogilvie, and Anne Goodchild. "Logistics sprawl: differential warehousing development patterns in Los Angeles, California, and Seattle, Washington." Transportation Research Record 2410, no. 1 (2014): 105-112.