Estimating and Forecasting E-commerce Last-Mile Delivery VMT in Urban Areas: A Novel Data-Driven Approach

This collaborative research project brings together the freight modeling expertise of Portland State University’s Dr. Miguel Figliozzi and the Urban Freight Lab’s experience in urban logistics research to develop new methods for estimating e-commerce-related vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the Seattle and Portland metropolitan regions. As online shopping continues to grow, there is increasing interest in understanding how e-commerce affects freight activity, congestion, emissions, and public health.

Project Summary

The project will combine several unique data sources that have not previously been integrated for this purpose, including household e-commerce demand data, inventories of logistics facilities and delivery touchpoints, and real-world delivery routing data. Researchers will develop and test new approaches to modeling e-commerce demand, distribution networks, and delivery routes to better estimate current and future e-commerce-related VMT.

The resulting methods, datasets, and analytical tools will help transportation planners and policymakers better understand the impacts of e-commerce growth and support future freight planning and infrastructure decisions. The collaboration leverages Dr. Figliozzi’s expertise in freight transportation planning, logistics modeling, routing, and e-commerce research, together with the Urban Freight Lab’s industry partnerships and experience in urban freight, warehousing, and last-mile delivery research.

Tasks and Deliverables

Task 1: Define and Classify Logistics Touchpoints (Lead: UW)

Conduct a literature review and stakeholder interviews to identify and classify logistics touchpoints involved in e-commerce distribution, including fulfillment centers, delivery stations, parcel lockers, microhubs, curb space, and delivery destinations.

Deliverable:

Technical report defining logistics touchpoints, their characteristics, and examples in the Seattle and Portland regions.

Task 2: Develop Logistics Touchpoint Dataset (Lead: UW)

Compile, validate, and map a comprehensive inventory of logistics facilities and delivery-related infrastructure using commercial, public, and field-collected data sources.

Deliverable:

Geospatial dataset of logistics touchpoints and facility characteristics for the Seattle and Portland metropolitan areas.

Task 3: Model Household E-Commerce Demand (Lead: UW)

Develop models of household online shopping behavior using national and regional travel survey data and generate synthetic population datasets to estimate e-commerce demand across both metropolitan areas.

Deliverables:

Methodology report describing demand modeling approach.
Geolocated demand datasets for use in routing and distribution analysis.
Comparison of national-data-only approaches versus enhanced local-data approaches.

Task 4: Review E-Commerce Routing and Distribution Methods (Lead: PSU)

Conduct a comprehensive review of existing freight routing, distribution, optimization, and urban freight modeling approaches relevant to e-commerce deliveries.

Deliverable:

Technical report evaluating available routing and distribution methodologies and recommending approaches for this project.

Task 5: Develop Routing and Distribution Models (Lead: PSU)

Create and test new routing and distribution algorithms using using real-world delivery route data from major carriers and advanced optimization and machine-learning techniques. The models will be designed to better reflect real-world e-commerce delivery operations.

Deliverables:

Technical report documenting routing formulations and algorithms.
Validation and performance evaluation using real-world delivery data.
Recommended performance metrics and modeling framework.

Task 6: Estimate E-Commerce VMT and Evaluate Scenarios (Lead: PSU)

Apply the developed models to estimate e-commerce-related VMT and evaluate future scenarios identified in collaboration with project stakeholders.

Deliverables:

E-commerce VMT estimates for Seattle and Portland.
Maps identifying key freight corridors, delivery activity areas, and e-commerce hotspots.
Scenario analysis results to support policy and planning decisions.

Task 7: Final Report and Knowledge Transfer (Joint UW–PSU Effort)

Integrate project findings into a final report and present results to stakeholders.

Deliverables:

Draft and final project report.
Stakeholder review process.
Final webinar presenting project findings and recommendations.

Paper

Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight

Download PDF (3.35 MB)

URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2025.2515134

Publication: Journal of the American Planning Association

Pages: 1-18

Publication Date: 2025

Summary:

As warehousing and distribution centers (W&D) rapidly expand, nearby communities, especially those that have been historically marginalized, face growing health risks from increased freight traffic. This research examines how local and state zoning decisions across the U.S. influence the placement and regulation of W&D facilities, and whether those actions consider environmental justice (EJ) principles.

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Warehousing and distribution center (W&D) expansion has raised concerns about the disproportionate exposure of nearby communities to freight traffic and its resulting health consequences. While local governments wield several tools to manage logistics-related development, few may be as consequential to public health disparities as zoning. In this study we synthesized the state of recent U.S. zoning actions related to W&D, examining their role as tools—or barriers—for advancing public health in communities historically burdened by freight traffic. Specifically, we investigated 92zoning actions at 67 locations (51 municipalities, 9 counties, and 7 states) and assessed the level at which environmental justice (EJ) principles informed these actions. The most common zoning actions were discretionary decisions on site permits (n ¼ 32). While we offer examples of councils considering EJ issues raised by communities, discretionary processes have drawbacks. Other actions include long-term plans (n ¼ 17), land use definitions (n ¼ 13), development standards (n ¼ 12), and conditional use permitting (n ¼ 14). We also examined four state-level policies. Many regulations restrict by-right W&D development with little indication that these changes are intended to benefit historically burdened communities.

Takeaway for practice: Local jurisdictions lack a unified regulatory approach to W&D. However, long-term plans and state environmental policies guide jurisdictions with the most EJ-explicit actions. Equitable and healthy urban freight requires clear strategic land use priorities and environmental safeguards for vulnerable communities but could also include flexibility for W&D development outside conventional industrial areas. We discuss how these findings fit into contemporary debates about zoning and urban freight planning

Authors: Dr. Travis FriedDr. Sarah Dennis-BauerDr. Anne GoodchildOliver Olmedo, Carla Tejada, Otgondulam Bolbaatar, Julian D. Marshall, Lizándro García

Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Tejada, C., Dennis-Bauer, S., Bolbaatar, O., Goodchild, A., Marshall, J. D., … García, L. (2025). Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2025.2515134

Paper

Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft

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URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.12.022

Publication: Transport Policy

Volume: 162

Pages: 406-423

Publication Date: 2025

Summary:

This study explores what influences people’s willingness to use Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs), incorporating factors like social influence, environmental concern, enjoyment, and perceived security risks to better understand public perception.

Abstract

This paper assesses the public acceptance of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs) by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating subjective norms, environmental concerns, and hedonic motivations alongside the original TAM constructs. The perceived security risk of theft is also defined and included in the model to explore its moderating role. Data was collected from an online survey of 1567 participants in different cities in Iran. The survey incorporated two open-ended questions as part of a qualitative approach to assessing control beliefs, exploring both the facilitators and barriers influencing people’s intentions. Based on structural equation modeling, findings highlight the strong impact of subjective norms and perceived usefulness on intention, along with the significant effect of attitudes and environmental concern. The moderating effect of the perceived security risk of theft is significant in perceived ease of use and hedonic motivations’ interactions with attitudes. Exploring the responses from open-ended questions showed that the majority of respondents perceived that using ADVs could help the environment, while the risk of stealing ADVs was identified as the main barrier to adopting them in urban settings.

Authors: Arsalan Esmaili, Sina Rejali (Queensland University of Technology), Kayvan Aghabayk (University of Tehran), Amin Mohammadi (University of Tabriz), Chris De Gruyter (RMIT University)

Recommended Citation:
Esmaili, Arsalan & Rejali, Sina & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Mohammadi, Amin & De Gruyter, Chris, 2025. "Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 406-423.

Managing the Traffic-Related Air Pollution (TRAP) Effects of Urban Warehousing Near Historically Marginalized Communities: A Scenario Analysis of Technology and Land Use Based Strategies

Ecommerce’s far-reaching impacts have prompted cities and companies to introduce strategies that advance urban freight transport’s environmental accountability. Many of these strategies have implications for equity. Warehousing and distribution centers (W&Ds) have concentrated in socially marginalized communities, in part, due to historical, racialized urban development practices. W&Ds generate high volumes of freight trips that are a prominent emitter of health-adverse, criteria air pollutants that burden nearby communities and workers. With the rapid proliferation of these facilities due to ecommerce-related demands, there is a need to evaluate and manage the traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) effect of these strategies on local communities. Most urban freight management strategies center on technological approaches (e.g., electrification), with limited implications for land use based strategies (e.g., zoning) that influence the spatial organization of W&Ds. Therefore, the proposed project endeavors to evaluate the distributional impacts of possible local policy interventions within ecommerce-related transport and land use systems with a focus on populations identified by federal Justice40 guidelines and steering committee input.

The methodology employs a novel, model-based approach to estimate the distribution of ecommerce’s TRAP-related health effects across population subgroups. Methodological procedures include household-level demand modeling using publicly available household travel surveys and population synthesis, traffic simulation (TransModeler), EPA MOVES4, and InMAP modeling with assumptions and parameters informed by interviews with experts from delivery companies, city planning agencies, and W&D operators. The model projects scenarios of future adoption of low- and zero-emission commercial vehicles and alternative W&D locations/characteristics, using sensitivity analyses to capture the effects of uncertainty in model parameters. The project identifies Seattle and New York City as case studies, due the states’ recent adoption of California’s Advanced Clean Truck Program, New York’s proposed Indirect Source Rule that targets W&D-derived pollution in historically marginalized communities, and both cities’ innovative efforts to analyze and mitigate the impacts of ecommerce. The findings and employed methods have long-term applicability for local and regional policymakers’ strategic equity goals concerning comprehensive urban mobility and land use planning.

The project’s objectives seek to capture the breadth of disparate impacts resulting from decisions made by consumers, delivery companies, state and local policymakers.

The UFL spearheads the project, with strategic leadership by Dr. Anne Goodchild (PI) and statistical leadership by Dr. Giacomo Dalla Chiara. Dr. Julian Marshall (co-PI) advises pollutant exposure and health effect estimation methods and interpretations. Travis Fried, Ph.D. student and RA, directs the methodological workflow and written production of results. Dr. Lianne Sheppard (UW Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences and Biostatistics) serves as scientific advisor on the steering committee, providing additional support for interpretation of results and review of written materials.

Paper

Evaluating Spatial Inequity in Last-Mile Delivery: A National Analysis

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URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPDLM-08-2023-0301

Publication: International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management

Volume: 54 (5)

Pages: 501-522

Publication Date: 2024

Summary:

This study introduces a first-of-a-kind modeling framework to evaluate the equity impacts of last-mile ecommerce delivery in U.S. cities. Analyzing data across 41 metropolitan areas, the research finds that populations of color experience significantly higher exposure to delivery traffic—about 35% more than white populations—despite ordering fewer packages. The framework helps planners assess baseline equity performance and test urban freight strategies.

Purpose

Despite large bodies of research related to the impacts of e-commerce on last-mile logistics and sustainability, there has been limited effort to evaluate urban freight using an equity lens. Therefore, this study proposes a modeling framework that enables researchers and planners to estimate the baseline equity performance of a major e-commerce platform and evaluate equity impacts of possible urban freight management strategies. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of various operational decisions to mitigate bias in the analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The model adapts empirical methodologies from activity-based modeling, transport equity evaluation, and residential freight trip generation (RFTG) to estimate person- and household-level delivery demand and cargo van traffic exposure in 41 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

Findings

Evaluating 12 measurements across varying population segments and spatial units, the study finds robust evidence for racial and socio-economic inequities in last-mile delivery for low-income and, especially, populations of color (POC). By the most conservative measurement, POC are exposed to roughly 35% more cargo van traffic than white populations on average, despite ordering less than half as many packages. The study explores the model’s utility by evaluating a simple scenario that finds marginal equity gains for urban freight management strategies that prioritize line-haul efficiency improvements over those improving intra-neighborhood circulations.

Originality/value

Presents a first effort in building a modeling framework for more equitable decision-making in last-mile delivery operations and broader city planning.

Authors: Dr. Travis FriedDr. Anne Goodchild, Ivan Sanchez Diaz (Chalmers University), Michael Browne (Gothenburg University)

Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Goodchild, A.V., Sanchez-Diaz, I. and Browne, M. (2024), "Evaluating spatial inequity in last-mile delivery: a national analysis", International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management.

Gabor Wehrmueller

Gabor Wehrmueller(no longer at UFL/SCTL)

Research Assistant, Urban Freight Lab
MSc., Supply Chain Management

gwehrm@uw.edu

Digitalization of the supply chain

Seattle SMART: Digitizing the Last Mile of Urban Goods to Improve Curb Access and Utilization (2025)

MSc of Supply Chain Management, University of Washington (in progress)
MSc in Applied Information and Data Science, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts
BA in Social Sciences, University of Zurich

Gabor Wehrmueller is a Research Assistant at the Urban Freight Lab and is pursuing a Master’s in Supply Chain Management at Foster School of Business. Before starting his Master’s, Gabor worked for over three years as a data scientist digitalizing the supply chain of a pharma company in Switzerland.

Gabor also holds an MSc in Applied Information and Data Science (Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts) and a BA in Social Sciences (University of Zurich).

Paper

Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle

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URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101382

Publication: Research in Transportation Economics

Volume: 103

Publication Date: 2023

Summary:

Urban distribution centers (UDCs) are opening at unprecedented rates to meet rising home delivery demand. The trend has raised concerns over the equity and environmental justice implications of ecommerce’s negative externalities. However, little research exists connecting UDC location to the concentration of urban freight-derived air pollution among marginalized populations.

Using spatial data of Amazon UDCs in metropolitan Seattle, this study quantifies the socio-spatial distribution of home delivery-related commercial vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), corresponding air pollution, and explanatory factors. Results reveal that racial and income factors are relevant to criteria air pollutant exposure caused by home deliveries, due to tracts with majority people of color being closer in proximity to UDCs and highways. Tracts with majority people of color face the highest median concentration of delivery vehicle activity and emissions despite ordering less packages than white populations. While both cargo van and heavy-duty truck emissions disproportionately affect people of color, the socio-spatial distribution of truck emissions shows higher sensitivity to fluctuations in utilization.

Prioritizing environmental mitigation of freight activity further up the urban distribution chain in proximity to UDCs, therefore, would have an outsized impact in minimizing disparities in ecommerce’s negative externalities.

Authors: Dr. Travis FriedRishi VermaDr. Anne Goodchild

Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Verma, R., & Goodchild, A. (2024). Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle. Research in Transportation Economics, 103, 101382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101382

Article

How Many Amazon Packages Get Delivered Each Year?

URL: https://theconversation.com/how-many-amazon-packages-get-delivered-each-year-187587

Publication: The Conversation

Publication Date: 2022

Summary:

How many Amazon packages get delivered each year? – Aya K., age 9, Illinois

It’s incredibly convenient to buy something online, right from your computer or phone. Whether it’s a high-end telescope or a resupply of toothpaste, the goods appear right at your doorstep. This kind of shopping is called “e-commerce” and it’s becoming more popular each year. In the U.S., it has grown from a mere 7% of retail purchases in 2012 to 19.6% of retail and $791.7 billion in sales in 2020.

Amazon’s growing reach
For Amazon, the biggest player in e-commerce, this means delivering lots of packages.

In 2021 Amazon shipped an estimated 7.7 billion packages globally, based on its nearly $470 billion in sales.

In 2021 Amazon shipped an estimated 7.7 billion packages globally.

If each of these packages were a 1-foot square box and they were stacked on top of one another, the pile would be six times higher than the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Laid end to end, they would wrap around the Earth 62 times.

Back in the early 2010s, most things bought from Amazon.com were shipped using a third-party carrier like FedEx or UPS. In 2014, however, Amazon began delivering packages itself with a service called “Fulfilled by Amazon.” That’s when those signature blue delivery vans started appearing on local streets.

Since then, Amazon’s logistics arm has grown from relying entirely on other carriers to shipping 22% of all packages in the U.S. in 2021. This is greater than FedEx’s 19% market share and within striking distance of UPS’s 24%. Amazon’s multichannel fulfillment service allows other websites to use its warehousing and shipping services. So your order from Etsy or eBay could also be packed and shipped by Amazon.

The supply chain
To handle that many packages, shipping companies need an extensive network of manufacturers, vehicles and warehouses that can coordinate together. This is called the supply chain. If you’ve ever used a tracking number to follow a package, you’ve seen it in action.

People who make decisions about where to send vehicles and how to route packages are constantly trying to keep costs down while still getting packages to customers on time. The supply chain can do this very effectively, but it also has downsides.

More delivery vehicles on the road produce more greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change, along with pollutants like nitrogen oxides and particulate matter that are hazardous to breathe. Traffic congestion is also a major concern in cities as delivery drivers try to find parking on busy streets.

Urban freight solutions
Are there ways to balance the increasing number of deliveries while making freight safe, sustainable and fast? At the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab, we work with companies like Amazon and UPS and others in the shipping, transportation and real estate sectors to answer questions like this. Here are some solutions for what we and our colleagues call the “last mile” – the last leg of a package’s long journey to your doorstep.

Electrification: Transitioning from gasoline and diesel vehicles to fleets of electric or other zero-emission vehicles reduces pollution from delivery trucks. Tax credits and local policies, such as creating so-called green loading zones and zero-emission zones for clean vehicles, create incentives for companies to make the switch.
Common carrier lockers: Buildings can install lockers at central locations, such as busy transit stops, so that drivers can drop off packages without going all the way to your doorstep. When you’re ready to pick up your items, you just stop by at a time that’s convenient for you. This reduces both delivery truck mileage and the risk of packages being stolen off of porches.
Cargo bicycles: Companies can take the delivery truck out of the equation and use electric cargo bicycles to drop off smaller packages. In addition to being zero-emission, cargo bicycles are relatively inexpensive and easy to park, and they provide a healthier alternative for delivery workers.

To learn more about supply chains and delivery logistics, check with your town or city’s transportation department to see if they are testing or already have goods delivery programs or policies, like those in New York and Seattle. And the next time you order something for delivery, consider your options for receiving it, such as walking or biking to a package locker or pickup point, or consolidating your items into a single delivery.

Package delivery can be both convenient and sustainable if companies keep evolving their supply chains, and everyone thinks about how they want delivery to work in their neighborhoods.

Authors: Dr. Anne GoodchildRishi Verma

Recommended Citation:
Goodchild, A. How many Amazon packages get delivered each year? The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/how-many-amazon-packages-get-delivered-each-year-187587

Dr. Anne Goodchild

Founder, Urban Freight Lab
Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering

annegood@uw.edu | 206-543-3747 | Wilson Ceramics Lab 103

Publications on Google Scholar

View CV

Urban goods delivery systems and land use
Logistics hubs and ports
Sustainable freight transportation systems
Supply chain management and freight transportation

Dr. Anne Goodchild is interested in the intersection between supply chain management and freight transportation. As an example of this, recent research is evaluating the changing nature of shopping and implications for goods delivery on CO2 emissions, local pollutants, and vehicle miles travelled. Her interest in economic and environmental sustainability is also demonstrated by her work looking at CO2 emissions in strategic routing and schedule planning in urban pick-up and delivery systems. Dr. Goodchild’s work in understanding supply chains, as they relate to the transport system, is demonstrated by her research funded by the SHRP2 freight data and modeling program, NCFRP 20, the FHWA’s Behavioral based National Freight Demand Model, and surveys and analysis funded by both the Washington and Oregon Departments of Transportation.

Innovation in Education Award, Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Transportation Education Council (2021)
Outstanding Researcher Award, Pacific Northwest Transportation Consortium (PacTrans) (2021)
Outstanding Mentor Award, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2020)
Person of the Year, Transportation Club of Seattle (2017)
Allan and Inger Osberg Endowed Professorship (2012 – 2016)
Community of Innovators Junior Faculty Research Award, College of Engineering (2012)
2nd Prize, College-Industry Council on MH Education Outstanding Material Handling and Logistics paper (2008)
Dissertation Prize Honorable Mention, INFORMS Transportation Science and Logistics (2006)
PRISMS Presentation Competition Finalist, Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (2003)

Ph.D., Civil and Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley (2005)
(Dissertation: Crane Double Cycling in Container Ports: Algorithms, Evaluation, and Planning)
M.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering, UC Berkeley (2003)
B.S., Mathematics, UC Davis (1995)

Dr. Anne Goodchild leads the University of Washington’s academic and research efforts in the area of supply chain, logistics, and freight transportation. She is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founder of both the Supply Chain Transportation & Logistics online Master’s degree program and the Urban Freight Lab (UFL).

Under Goodchild’s leadership, the UFL coined the increasingly used term “Final 50 Feet” and defined it as the last leg of the supply chain for urban deliveries—including finding parking, moving items from a delivery vehicle, navigating traffic, sidewalks, intersections, bike lanes, and building security, and ending with the recipient. In addition to being key to customer satisfaction, this final segment is both the most expensive (where an estimated 25-50% of total supply chain costs are incurred) and most time-consuming part of the delivery process—and ripe for improvement. One of the hurdles in the final 50 feet is that many different parties are involved—city departments of transportation, delivery carriers, property owners, residents, and consumers—making a collaborative effort between sectors essential for developing mutually beneficial solutions. Using a systems engineering approach, the UFL has completed innovative research projects that provide foundational data and proven strategies, such as:

Dr. Goodchild’s contributions to transportation engineering in the U.S. and abroad have been significant. She is an expert in international border and port operations and has been instrumental in bringing supply chain concepts to freight model architectures. She has worked at the forefront of GPS data applications, identifying observable transportation characteristics that statistically predict transportation behavior.

She is the author or co-author of more than 100 research publications, and serves as associate editor for the peer-reviewed scientific journal Transportation Letters. From 2016 to 2018 she chaired the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine’s Transportation Research Board (TRB) Freight and Marine Chairs group, the top national research organization in her field. She teaches logistics and analysis, global trade, transportation & logistics management, and advises graduate students in transportation engineering, and has won several teaching and research awards.

Dr. Goodchild is the recipient of numerous research grants, including recent awards from the U.S. Department of Transportation, PacTrans (Regional University Transportation Center for Federal Region 10), Seattle Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration’s Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP2), TRB’s National Cooperative Freight Research Program, and the Washington and Oregon State Departments of Transportation.

Dr. Goodchild holds both a doctorate (2005) and a master’s degree (2003) in civil and environmental engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and a bachelor’s degree (with high honors) in mathematics from University of California, Davis. Before earning her Ph.D. she worked for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and Applied Decision Analysis Inc. in Europe and North America designing efficient airline schedules and optimizing research portfolios. She joined the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering faculty at the University of Washington in 2005. In addition, she holds a Visiting Professorship at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden and a Research Affiliateship at Urban@UW (an initiative of the Office of Research and CoMotion at the University of Washington).

Adjunct Professor, Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington
Visiting Professor, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg (Sweden)
Affiliate, Urban @ UW, University of Washington
Co-Chair, Aurora Urban Freight Consortium
Member, NECTAR (The Network on European Communications and Transport Activity Research) Cluster 3 Organizing Committee, Logistics and Freight
Member, Washington State Freight Advisory Committee (Chair, 2011-2013)
Organizing Committee, International Urban Freight Conference (I-NUF), Long Beach, CA (2017, 2019, 2021)
Associate Editor, Transportation Research Record (TRR) (2019-2020)
Member, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Transportation Research Board (TRB), Taskforce on Development of Freight Fluidity Performance Measures (2016-2019)
Group Chair, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Transportation Research Board (TRB), Freight Group (2016-2019)
Chair, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Transportation Research Board (TRB), Freight and Marine Chairs Group (2016-2018)
Chair, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Transportation Research Board (TRB) Standing Committee on Intermodal Freight Transportation (AT045) (2013-2016)
Member, National Academy of Sciences, Committee for Study of Freight Rail Transportation and Regulation (2014-2015)
Editor, International Journal of Logistics and Transportation Research (2013-2014)
Member, Puget Sound Regional Council Freight Advisory Panel (2008-2011)

Student Thesis and Dissertations

Examining the Effects of Common Carrier Lockers on Residential Delivery

Download PDF (0.22 MB)

URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1773/47716

Publication Date: 2021

Summary:

In recent years, e-commerce has dramatically increased deliveries to residential areas. The rise in delivery vehicle activity creates externalities for the transportation system, including congestion, competition for parking space, and emissions. Common carrier lockers have emerged as a way to manage these effects by consolidating deliveries, but they remain largely untested in the United States. This thesis examines the effects of a common carrier locker placed in a residential building in downtown Seattle, Washington. An experimental design with on-street data tests the effect of the locker on dwell times and time that delivery people spend in the building. Data collected by the locker provider gives insight into the e-commerce behavior patterns of residents. Finally, a simulation model was constructed to obtain the optimal configuration of box sizes in similar lockers. The results show that the locker had a statistically significant effect on time spent within the building, but not on dwell times or curb productivity. However, dwell times for similar vehicles in this sample decreased somewhat. The simulation demonstrated that time-based policies and flexible locker designs can prove to be effective strategies for managing demand.

Authors: Caleb Diehl

Recommended Citation:
Diehl, Caleb. (2021). Examining the Effects of Common Carrier Lockers on Residential Delivery. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/47716. University of Washington Master's Thesis.