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Paper

Evaluating the Impacts of Variable Message Signs on Airport Curbside Performance Using Microsimulation

 
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Publication: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

Inefficient curb space allocation increases congestion and emissions at airports. Variable message signs (VMS) can alleviate this issue, guiding vehicles from congested to underutilized curbs. However, VMS effectiveness hinges on the right activation and deactivation timing. Using a microsimulation model of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, we analyzed the impacts of implementing VMS and determined the best time to turn the sign on and off. We simulated sixteen VMS management scenarios and compared the results against those of a baseline where there was no VMS. We found that strategic and timely management of the VMS is crucial to achieving improvements in congestion and curb performance. Specifically, activating VMS before congestion started on the sending link and deactivating it before congestion began on the receiving link substantially improved curb productivity and accessibility, vehicle delay, and CO2 emissions. On the other hand, if not managed correctly, VMS may lead to little to no improvements, or even negative impacts on traffic conditions and curb performance. For instance, late activation or deactivation can worsen curb accessibility and vehicle delay. Our framework provides valuable insights into how airports could successfully manage VMS technologies.

Authors: Thomas Maxner, Jorge M. Diaz-Gutierrez, Andisheh Ranjbari, Nicola Longo, Nawaf Nazir
Recommended Citation:
Diaz-Gutierrez, J.M. et al. (2025) Evaluating the Impacts of Variable Message Signs on Airport Curbside Performance Using Microsimulation. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981251387133
Paper

Explicit consideration of human exposure to minimize freight routing impacts

Publication: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume: 151
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

As freight demand grows, so do its negative externalities, such as health and environmental impacts. This study integrates a reduced-complexity air quality model (RCM) with a multimodal traffic assignment model to analyze the scenario in which trucks minimize their public health costs. The study compares the least health-cost path (LHCP) with the shortest, fastest, and least-emissions paths. Two LHCP scenarios with geofences around sensitive populations differed in travel time (TT), health costs, and community impacts. LHCP had 10.9% higher TT and 29% lower costs than the next lowest scenarios. Under the LHCP, within-scenario burdens increased for some communities (e.g., PM2.5 burden) but decreased for others (e.g., ozone burden). The other routing scenarios similarly produced differential effects across communities, highlighting tradeoffs. Geofences increased TT and health costs relative to the LHCP and produced different community impacts. This study provides new, actionable insights into methods to mitigate transportation externalities, particularly in communities.

Introduction
As manufacturing and shopping patterns change, the US relies more heavily on multiple sources and freight modes to move massive quantities of goods across the country and worldwide (USEPA & OAR, 2016a). The US Department of Transportation (2022) reports that in 2023, the daily average tonnage was 55.5 million, valued at approximately $51 billion. The Freight Analysis Framework (2024) estimates that tonnage will increase by 1.2 % annually.

As demand for freight transportation grows, so do emissions and the negative externalities borne by nearby communities. Further, heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) have the fastest-growing share of emissions within the transportation sector. Among the most harmful transportation pollutants to air quality and public health are criteria pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and particulate matter (PM) (USEPA, 2022). The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) estimates that the transportation sector accounts for over 50 % of total NOx emissions, over 30 % of VOCs, and over 20 % of PM in the US (USEPA & OAR, 2016a). The health impacts of transportation-attributable emissions are well-documented and include elevated asthma risks, acute lower respiratory infections, lung cancer, irritation and inflammation, and premature mortality (Gauderman et al., 2005, McConnell et al., 2006, McConnell et al., 2010, Zhu et al., 2002, USEPA., 2022, CARB, xxxx, Brugge et al., 2007; Cesaroni et al., 2013; HEI, 2022).

Emissions of criteria pollutants from the transportation sector disproportionately impact disadvantaged communities in the region, as identified by California State Bill 535 designations (SB 535 Disadvantaged Communities, 2022). Thus, California has historically prioritized policy and planning measures to improve air quality (e.g., the Clean Air Act of 2006), which have progressively set targets to reduce emissions significantly. Several rules have focused on the transportation sector (e.g., Advanced Clean Cars, Advanced Clean Fleets, 2045 decarbonization plan).

Most current state policies and strategies in California promote air quality improvements by adopting and deploying zero- or near-zero-emission heavy-duty trucks (ZEHDTs), which will take time to become fully market-ready. Identifying complementary and supplementary strategies to improve local air quality and achieve the State’s targets on a shorter timeline is critical. To this end, this study analyzes a quick-to-implement strategy to address vehicle operations that disproportionately burden communities (Samet and White, 2004, Schlossberg, 2021, Tessum et al., 2021). Specifically, the work focuses on routing strategies that consider the local health impacts of freight flows, coupled with spatially constrained strategies such as geofencing.

In doing so, this study builds upon eco-routing tools in the literature, which generate unique routing options based on network conditions and private objectives, such as minimizing transportation costs, fuel consumption, or emissions. Some of these studies have developed origin-based multi-class traffic assignment models, solved using the paired alternative segments (mTAPAS) algorithm, to estimate the network-wide effects of eco-routing (Pahwa and Jaller, 2024, Jaller et al., 2021). This type of eco-routing model dynamically estimates vehicle emissions based on traffic assignment-induced congestion, and its network-based nature provides high-resolution, link-level emissions estimates. Empirical evidence demonstrates that eco-routing and geofencing can lead to significant local emissions reductions, depending on the characteristics of the geofenced strategy, without negative consequences for the rest of the region. However, a critical limitation of existing models is that they consider only changes in emissions and do not account for air pollution-related health impacts on populations affected by the routing scenarios. Therefore, this study integrates health exposure into eco-routing models to explore the opportunities and challenges of freight eco-routing for minimizing public health costs.

Specifically, this study performs traffic assignment to minimize the public health costs imposed on communities by HDTs, then analyzes community impacts between different routing scenarios. The primary contribution of this study to the existing field of knowledge is the novel integration of a reduced-complexity air quality model (RCM) that quantifies exposure-related health impacts by accounting for the complex transition from vehicle emissions to estimated pollutant concentrations, with a multi-class traffic assignment model. This integrated model seeks an impact-based equilibrium on health. This study develops and implements an algorithm that accounts for the complexity of the multi-class public health assignment. Based on the least health-cost path (LHCP) assignment, the community impacts are quantified and discussed in relation to the other scenarios under study, namely, the least emissions path (LEP), the shortest path (SP), the fastest path (FP), and geofenced scenarios. Furthermore, this study employs different objectives for passenger cars (minimizing travel time) and HDTs (minimizing health costs) to ensure that the outcomes provide practical insights for mitigating health effects from the freight sector.

This paper first discusses the literature focusing on the health impacts of truck travel and traffic routing methods. Then, it describes the methodology that integrates an RCM into the multi-class traffic assignment and the proposed approach for evaluating community impacts. The remainder of the paper presents the empirical results and their implications, concluding with policy, operational, and planning recommendations.

Authors: Dr. Sarah Dennis-Bauer, Anmol Pahwa, Miguel Jaller
Recommended Citation:
Dennis-Bauer, S., Pahwa, A. and Jaller, M. (2026) Explicit consideration of human exposure to minimize freight routing impacts. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 151, 105133. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2025.105133.
Paper

Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight

 
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Publication: Journal of the American Planning Association
Pages: 1-18
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

As warehousing and distribution centers (W&D) rapidly expand, nearby communities, especially those that have been historically marginalized, face growing health risks from increased freight traffic. This research examines how local and state zoning decisions across the U.S. influence the placement and regulation of W&D facilities, and whether those actions consider environmental justice (EJ) principles.

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Warehousing and distribution center (W&D) expansion has raised concerns about the disproportionate exposure of nearby communities to freight traffic and its resulting health consequences. While local governments wield several tools to manage logistics-related development, few may be as consequential to public health disparities as zoning. In this study we synthesized the state of recent U.S. zoning actions related to W&D, examining their role as tools—or barriers—for advancing public health in communities historically burdened by freight traffic. Specifically, we investigated 92zoning actions at 67 locations (51 municipalities, 9 counties, and 7 states) and assessed the level at which environmental justice (EJ) principles informed these actions. The most common zoning actions were discretionary decisions on site permits (n ¼ 32). While we offer examples of councils considering EJ issues raised by communities, discretionary processes have drawbacks. Other actions include long-term plans (n ¼ 17), land use definitions (n ¼ 13), development standards (n ¼ 12), and conditional use permitting (n ¼ 14). We also examined four state-level policies. Many regulations restrict by-right W&D development with little indication that these changes are intended to benefit historically burdened communities.

Takeaway for practice: Local jurisdictions lack a unified regulatory approach to W&D. However, long-term plans and state environmental policies guide jurisdictions with the most EJ-explicit actions. Equitable and healthy urban freight requires clear strategic land use priorities and environmental safeguards for vulnerable communities but could also include flexibility for W&D development outside conventional industrial areas. We discuss how these findings fit into contemporary debates about zoning and urban freight planning

Authors: Travis FriedDr. Sarah Dennis-BauerDr. Anne GoodchildOliver Olmedo, Carla Tejada, Otgondulam Bolbaatar, Julian D. Marshall, Lizándro García
Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Tejada, C., Dennis-Bauer, S., Bolbaatar, O., Goodchild, A., Marshall, J. D., … García, L. (2025). Logistics of Zoning, Zoning for Logistics: Toward Healthy and Equitable Development for Urban Freight. Journal of the American Planning Association, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2025.2515134
Paper

Does Proximity Matter in Shopping Behavior?

 
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Publication: Elsevier Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Volume: 196
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

While e-commerce continues to grow as a proportion of retail sales, consumers still largely rely on vehicle travel to shop. At the same time, the “15-minute city” concept is gaining traction, suggesting that the livability and sustainability of urban areas will improve if essential goods and services are all located in close proximity to residential areas. However, little is known about how the proximity of commercial establishments to consumers affects their shopping behaviors, namely their choice of whether to shop online or in-person, and the mode of travel if the latter is chosen.

In this study, we use data from a 2022 shopping behavior survey asking about consumers’ most recent shopping events, whether they were performed online or in-person, the travel mode. Respondents’ approximate home locations were also collected, allowing the research team to map nearby establishments. The collected data was used to estimate discrete choice models of shopping behaviors and test whether proximity to commercial establishments affects shoppers’ choices. In particular, this study tests whether proximity to commercial establishments makes consumers more likely to shop in person (vs. online) and to travel by walking (vs. driving).

Proximity to commercial establishments did not affect the likelihood of purchasing goods online, while it did affect the travel mode choice for in-person shopping travel for certain types of goods. Regression analysis indicates that each additional commercial establishment within a 0.5-mile radius increased the likelihood of walking by 23%for groceries and 17% for prepared meals. This did not apply to clothes shopping, which also had the highest rate of e-commerce at 62.4%. We observed that for in-person shopping, travel time was approximately 10 min for both walking and driving. In addition, we found that e-commerce made up 25.3% of all shopping activity and the majority (81%) of shopping travel involved driving.

Recommended Citation:
Verma, Rishi, Dalla Chiara, Giacomo, and Goodchild, Anne. (2025) ‘Does proximity matter in shopping behavior?’, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 196, p. 104471. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2025.104471.
Paper

Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft

 
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Publication: Transport Policy
Volume: 162
Pages: 406-423
Publication Date: 2025
Summary:

This study explores what influences people’s willingness to use Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs), incorporating factors like social influence, environmental concern, enjoyment, and perceived security risks to better understand public perception.

Abstract

This paper assesses the public acceptance of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles (ADVs) by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating subjective norms, environmental concerns, and hedonic motivations alongside the original TAM constructs. The perceived security risk of theft is also defined and included in the model to explore its moderating role. Data was collected from an online survey of 1567 participants in different cities in Iran. The survey incorporated two open-ended questions as part of a qualitative approach to assessing control beliefs, exploring both the facilitators and barriers influencing people’s intentions. Based on structural equation modeling, findings highlight the strong impact of subjective norms and perceived usefulness on intention, along with the significant effect of attitudes and environmental concern. The moderating effect of the perceived security risk of theft is significant in perceived ease of use and hedonic motivations’ interactions with attitudes. Exploring the responses from open-ended questions showed that the majority of respondents perceived that using ADVs could help the environment, while the risk of stealing ADVs was identified as the main barrier to adopting them in urban settings.

Authors: Arsalan Esmaili, Sina Rejali (Queensland University of Technology), Kayvan Aghabayk (University of Tehran), Amin Mohammadi (University of Tabriz), Chris De Gruyter (RMIT University)
Recommended Citation:
Esmaili, Arsalan & Rejali, Sina & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Mohammadi, Amin & De Gruyter, Chris, 2025. "Autonomous delivery vehicle acceptance: The moderating role of perceived risk of theft," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 406-423.
Paper

Choosing My Own Path: Revealing Differences in Route Choice Preferences Across Long-Haul, Medium-Haul, and Short-Haul Trucking

Publication Date: 2023
Summary:

The rapid growth in e-commerce activities and the constant specialization of industries have aroused an unparalleled demand for trucking in urban areas, leading to growing concern over its interference to the transportation system. Understanding truck route choice preferences across long-haul, medium-haul, and short-haul trips can offer insights for designing the truck route network tailored to specific freight demand types, so as to effectively reduce their interference to passenger transportation. However, limited research has been conducted to explore the heterogeneity or similarity of route choice preferences across those freight demand types. This study utilizes the Path Size Logit Model to explore the characteristics of preferred route across long-haul, medium-haul, and short-haul trips, and reveal the underlying route choice mechanism behind enormous trucking activities. By employing truck GPS data from China, we find that (1) although the characteristics of preferred routes vary across long-haul, medium-haul, and short-haul trips, those trips collectively reflect full consideration of travel efficiency, safety, and reliability; (2) all these freight demand types incline to the routes with shortest travel distances instead of those with shortest travel time, while short-haul trips exhibit the highest sensitivity to travel distance; (3) drivers in both long-haul and medium-haul trips favor routes that combine motorways and sub-arterial roads, while long-haul trips present higher sensitivity; (4) drivers in short-haul trips show preferences for routes featuring fewer turns, and sub-arterial roads given last-mile delivery demand. Finally, we propose suggestions for designing urban truck route network to accommodate diverse freight demand in high-density urban areas with limited road resources.

Authors: Dr. Anne Goodchild, Zhengtao Qin, Ruixu Pan, Chengcheng Yu, Tong Xiao, Chao Yang, Quan Yuan (Tongji University)
Recommended Citation:
Qin, Zhengtao and Pan, Ruixu and Yu, Chengcheng and Xiao, Tong and Yang, Chao and Goodchild, Anne and Yuan, Quan, Choosing My Own Path: Revealing Differences in Route Choice Preferences Across Long-Haul, Medium-Haul, and Short-Haul Trucking. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4853521
Paper

Evaluating Spatial Inequity in Last-Mile Delivery: A National Analysis

 
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Publication: International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management
Volume:  54 (5)
Pages: 501-522
Publication Date: 2024
Summary:

This study introduces a first-of-a-kind modeling framework to evaluate the equity impacts of last-mile ecommerce delivery in U.S. cities. Analyzing data across 41 metropolitan areas, the research finds that populations of color experience significantly higher exposure to delivery traffic—about 35% more than white populations—despite ordering fewer packages. The framework helps planners assess baseline equity performance and test urban freight strategies.

Purpose

Despite large bodies of research related to the impacts of e-commerce on last-mile logistics and sustainability, there has been limited effort to evaluate urban freight using an equity lens. Therefore, this study proposes a modeling framework that enables researchers and planners to estimate the baseline equity performance of a major e-commerce platform and evaluate equity impacts of possible urban freight management strategies. The study also analyzes the sensitivity of various operational decisions to mitigate bias in the analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The model adapts empirical methodologies from activity-based modeling, transport equity evaluation, and residential freight trip generation (RFTG) to estimate person- and household-level delivery demand and cargo van traffic exposure in 41 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

Findings

Evaluating 12 measurements across varying population segments and spatial units, the study finds robust evidence for racial and socio-economic inequities in last-mile delivery for low-income and, especially, populations of color (POC). By the most conservative measurement, POC are exposed to roughly 35% more cargo van traffic than white populations on average, despite ordering less than half as many packages. The study explores the model’s utility by evaluating a simple scenario that finds marginal equity gains for urban freight management strategies that prioritize line-haul efficiency improvements over those improving intra-neighborhood circulations.

Originality/value

Presents a first effort in building a modeling framework for more equitable decision-making in last-mile delivery operations and broader city planning.

Authors: Travis FriedDr. Anne Goodchild, Ivan Sanchez Diaz (Chalmers University), Michael Browne (Gothenburg University)
Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Goodchild, A.V., Sanchez-Diaz, I. and Browne, M. (2024), "Evaluating spatial inequity in last-mile delivery: a national analysis", International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management.
Paper

Long-Term Planning for a Mixed Urban Freight Fleet with EVs and ICEVs in the USA

 
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Publication: Sustainability
Volume: 16 (8)
Publication Date: 2024
Summary:

Commercial electric vehicles (EVs) have increasingly gained interest from urban freight companies in the past decade due to the introduction of economic and policy drivers. Although these factors promote urban freight electrification, some barriers hinder the transition to fully electric fleets, such as the significant monetary investment required to replace the current internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) and the lack of readily available electric freight vehicles. Due to these barriers, for the foreseeable future, urban freight companies will operate mixed fleets with a combination of EVs and ICEVs to balance their cost/benefit trade-offs. This intermediate operational stage will allow companies to adjust their operations, test EVs, and decide if a fully electric fleet is the best choice.

This paper focuses on urban last-mile deliveries in the USA and proposes a long-term planning model to explore the effects of external factors (i.e., fuel costs) on planning decisions (i.e., EV share) for a mixed fleet. In the context of this paper long-term planning is the planning for the infrastructure needed for the introduction of EVs (i.e., fleet composition and charging station location). The goal of the proposed model is to minimize the fuel, EV, ICEV, and EV charger costs.

The results show that the EV share of a mixed fleet is affected by gasoline and electricity prices and the distances traveled in a given network. This paper shows that the EV share of a mixed fleet increases when the gasoline cost increases and the electricity cost decreases.

Recommended Citation:
Goulianou, Panagiota, Amelia Regan, and Anne Goodchild. 2024. "Long-Term Planning for a Mixed Urban Freight Fleet with EVs and ICEVs in the USA." Sustainability 16, no. 8: 3144. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083144
Paper

Evaluation of Bicyclist Physiological Response and Visual Attention in Commercial Vehicle Loading Zones

 
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Publication: Journal of Safety Research
Publication Date: 2023
Summary:

With growing freight operations throughout the world, there is a push for transportation systems to accommodate trucks during loading and unloading operations. Currently, many urban locations do not provide loading and unloading zones, which results in trucks parking in places that obstruct bicyclist’s roadway infrastructure (e.g., bicycle lanes).

Method
To understand the implications of these truck operations, a bicycle simulation experiment was designed to evaluate the impact of commercial vehicle loading and unloading activities on safe and efficient bicycle operations in a shared urban roadway environment. A fully counterbalanced, partially randomized, factorial design was chosen to explore three independent variables: commercial vehicle loading zone (CVLZ) sizes with three levels (i.e., no CVLZ, Min CVLZ, and Max CVLZ), courier position with three levels (i.e., no courier, behind the truck, beside the truck), and with and without loading accessories. Bicyclist’s physiological response and eye tracking were used as performance measures. Data were obtained from 48 participants, resulting in 864 observations in 18 experimental scenarios using linear mixed-effects models (LMM).

Results
Results from the LMMs suggest that loading zone size and courier position had the greatest effect on bicyclist’s physiological responses. Bicyclists had approximately two peaks-per-minute higher when riding in the condition that included no CVLZ and courier on the side compared to the base conditions (i.e., Max CVLZ and no courier). Additionally, when the courier was beside the truck, bicyclist’s eye fixation durations (sec) were one (s) greater than when the courier was located behind the truck, indicating that bicyclists were more alert as they passed by the courier. The presence of accessories had the lowest influence on both bicyclists’ physiological response and eye tracking measures.

Practical Applications
These findings could support better roadway and CVLZ design guidelines, which will allow our urban street system to operate more efficiently, safely, and reliable for all users.

Authors: Dr. Ed McCormackDr. Anne Goodchild, Hisham Jashami, Douglas Cobb, Ivan Sinkus, Yujun Liu, David Hurwitz
Recommended Citation:
Jashami, Hisham, Douglas Cobb, Ivan Sinkus, Yujun Liu, Edward McCormack, Anne Goodchild, and David Hurwitz. “Evaluation of Bicyclist Physiological Response and Visual Attention in Commercial Vehicle Loading Zones.” Journal of Safety Research. Elsevier BV, December 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2023.11.018
Paper

Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle

 
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Publication: Research in Transportation Economics
Volume: 103
Publication Date: 2023
Summary:

Urban distribution centers (UDCs) are opening at unprecedented rates to meet rising home delivery demand. The trend has raised concerns over the equity and environmental justice implications of ecommerce’s negative externalities. However, little research exists connecting UDC location to the concentration of urban freight-derived air pollution among marginalized populations.

Using spatial data of Amazon UDCs in metropolitan Seattle, this study quantifies the socio-spatial distribution of home delivery-related commercial vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), corresponding air pollution, and explanatory factors. Results reveal that racial and income factors are relevant to criteria air pollutant exposure caused by home deliveries, due to tracts with majority people of color being closer in proximity to UDCs and highways. Tracts with majority people of color face the highest median concentration of delivery vehicle activity and emissions despite ordering less packages than white populations. While both cargo van and heavy-duty truck emissions disproportionately affect people of color, the socio-spatial distribution of truck emissions shows higher sensitivity to fluctuations in utilization.

Prioritizing environmental mitigation of freight activity further up the urban distribution chain in proximity to UDCs, therefore, would have an outsized impact in minimizing disparities in ecommerce’s negative externalities.

Recommended Citation:
Fried, T., Verma, R., & Goodchild, A. (2024). Ecommerce and Environmental Justice in Metro Seattle. Research in Transportation Economics, 103, 101382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101382