Analyzing the Shift in Travel Modes’ Market Shares with the Deployment of Autonomous Vehicle Technology

It is generally accepted that automation as an emerging technology in transportation sector could have a potential huge effect on changing the way individuals travel. In this study, the impact of automation technology on the market share of current transportation modes has been examined. A stated preference (SP) survey was launched around the U.S. to ask 1500 commuters how they would choose their commute mode if they had the option to choose between their current mode and an autonomous mode. The survey included five transportation modes: car, transit, transit plus ride-sourcing for the first/last mile, solo ride-sourcing, and pooled ride-sourcing. Each of these modes could be presented as regular or autonomous in the choice scenarios. Then, a mixed logit model was developed using the collected data. Results from the analysis of the model showed that applying the automation in ride-sourcing services to decrease the fare, has the largest effect on the market share of transit ride-sourcing. Also, it was found that measures such as deploying more frequent services by ride-sourcing operators to minimize the waiting time of the services could lead to an increase in the market share of transit plus ride-sourcing but it might not improve the market share for solo and pooled ride-sourcing. Furthermore, it was concluded that if the ride-sourcing market share does not move toward the automation, the mode that will lose the market share is the transit plus ride-sourcing mode for which the market share will be decreased as a consequence of the high decrease in the cost of riding an autonomous private car.